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San Marino Can Outperform Their Eurovision Semi-Final Odds


San Marino were a knockout value bet at 2/1 to qualify for the final of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest in Turin when the odds were first released.

The tiny landlocked country may have only qualified for the finals three times from 11 attempts but in 2022 its representative, Italian singer, rapper, and songwriter Achille Lauro has plenty going for him. The 31-year-old shares an uncanny resemblance to Julian Clary and he, along with many of camp bandmates, will appeal to the enormous amount of Eurovision voters that make hail from the LGBTQ+ community.

As an act, they resemble 2021 Eurovision winners – Maneskin from Italy – and their performance is remarkably similar to what they produced to take gold 12 months ago.

Sadly all the 2/1 was quickly snaffled and the best odds available on San Marino to qualify are now into a best price of 9/11 at SBK which is still an acceptable price about the small nation overcoming eight rivals on Thursday, May 12 and proceeding to the final two days later.

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English Usually The Key to a Top-10

Meanwhile, online betting giant bet365* have opened a Eurovision betting market on countries to finish in the top 10 of the Eurovision final. Ukraine, Italy, Sweden, Spain, the UK, Norway and Greece are all priced under 1/3. They are hard to oppose but three other places are very much up for grabs.

It is Poland, the Netherlands, France, Serbia, Australia and Portugal that follow in the Eurovision betting odds at the time of writing. All other countries are quoted at 9/4 or greater.

Serbia’s song, performed by 38-year-old Konstrakta, is particularly dull. It is not performed in English and that is always a handicap. That disadvantage goes for the French entry too. It is performed in Breton. Google tells us Breton comes from the Celtic language family and is only spoken in Brittany, north-western France.

Despite being sung in Dutch, one of our favourite songs and our bet to make the Top 10 is the Netherlands entry. In fact, Australia, Portugal and Poland are the only prominent acts vying for a top-10 spot that perform their song in English.

Australia Has the Voice and The Track Record

Australia contested Eurovision for the first time in 2015. Since then, it has qualified for the final five times from six attempts. It has also been a top-10 finisher four times. Unquestionably Australia does well courtesy of its status as a neutral country operating outside of Europe.

There is no neighbourly love, and there is no neighbourly loathing. Australia has always seemed to outperform its odds. This year they are 5/2 to claim yet another top-10 and it looks like a generous price.

Australia is represented by 23-year-old Sheldon Riley. He appeared in The Voice Australia in 2018 when all of the four judges turned their chairs and Riley chose Boy George to be his coach. Riley made it to the grand finale of the show and finished in third place.

The artist has been well received in the Eurovision pre-parties in which he has performed during April in London and Israel. His voice is stunning, and his song is captivating.

The downfall could be his stage act. He may have a great presence but in the official video accompanying ‘Not The Same’ (adapted from Australia Decides – the TV selection program) a beaded face burqa he wore, while symbolic, was not well received.

Thankfully the Australian has recently declared his act “will be completely different and 100 times bigger than what it was.”

For us, a top-10 looks massively likely and consequently Unibet’s 5/2 about the Australian song finishing in the top 10 of the final show is a standout Eurovision bet.

* Eurovision 2022 odds correct at the time of writing. Subject to changes.

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